Bitcoin’s price has hovered between $108,000 and $110,000 in recent days, though it recently slipped to $106,000. According to market analyst Kyle Chassé, this consolidation phase may signal a more significant shift ahead, as it aligns with historical patterns tied to global monetary movements.
In an in-depth analysis, Chassé highlighted how Bitcoin’s daily price movements correlate with the global M2 money supply, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and near-liquid assets worldwide. His research, using a 90-day lag on M2 figures, indicates that Bitcoin’s valuation typically trails global liquidity shifts by approximately three months.
The link becomes clear when Bitcoin’s price history is compared with periods of monetary expansion. The cryptocurrency reached a high above $109,000 in January, followed by a decline that took it below $75,000 in early April.
Chassé has outlined a projection in which Bitcoin could potentially climb to $400,000, based on its correlation with global M2 trends. He believes such a surge—roughly 270% from its present value around $108,000—is attainable, assuming the current pace of global M2 growth is sustained.
Bitcoin Price Pattern Confirmed by 12-Week Leading Indicator
Julien Bittel of Global Macro Investor has provided additional support for this perspective through his own analysis. His study indicates that during the past two years, increases in liquidity have tended to precede Bitcoin price surges by nearly three months, with global M2 functioning as a leading indicator of price movement over a 12-week span.
Between early 2023 and early 2024, the global M2 money supply grew from $98 trillion to just over $108 trillion. Bitcoin’s price surged past $100,000 by the end of 2024, reflecting the rapid market expansion. The period of consolidation and the eventual drop below $80,000 for BTC aligned with a mid-2024 deceleration in M2 growth, reflecting a broader stagnation in global liquidity trends.
Global M2 recently surged past $111 trillion. When analysts consider the typical 90-day delay in its market impact, many anticipate that Bitcoin (BTC) could continue gaining upward momentum in the coming months. This monetary environment offers foundational backing for Bitcoin’s price movement, extending beyond the scope of technical analysis.
Nevertheless, the correlation framework also highlights that Bitcoin is still susceptible to shifts in global monetary strategies. If central banks contract the money supply or slow its expansion, BTC typically faces downward pressure after a three-month lag.
