Bitcoin (BTC) is rapidly approaching the $100,000 threshold following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who hinted at a significant trade agreement, reportedly involving the United Kingdom.
The upward movement in prices aligns with the cryptocurrency’s broader bullish technical configuration and the optimistic risk sentiment prevailing in traditional financial markets. At the time of reporting, Asian stock markets were trading higher, and futures linked to the S&P 500 had risen by 0.6%.
Nevertheless, several factors indicate that the breakout above $100,000 may encounter obstacles and may not occur without volatility.
WSJ Tempers Market Optimism
According to the Wall Street Journal, the major trade deal hinted at by Trump on Truth Social may be presented merely as a “framework of an announcement with tariff adjustments.”
In essence, the upcoming announcement may represent a preliminary framework of negotiations, potentially resulting in a finalized trade deal weeks or months later. Consequently, the initial wave of optimism may temper the upward momentum in BTC as it diminishes.
Resistance Emerges at $99,900 Level
As we noted earlier this week, the $99,900 level may present a significant challenge to surpass, as investors who purchased coins near this price point earlier in the year, along with long-term holders taking profits, could trigger heightened selling pressure.
Coinbase Premium Indicator Signals Market Sentiment
The Coinbase premium indicator, which evaluates the difference between BTC’s dollar-denominated price on the Coinbase exchange and its tether-denominated price on Binance, serves as an indirect measure of demand from U.S.-based investors.
Historically, prolonged BTC bull markets have shown a noticeable increase in the Coinbase premium.
Since late April, the seven-day moving average of the Coinbase premium has shown a bearish divergence from the price.
RSI Shows Bearish Divergence Signal
Although BTC established a new multi-week high during the Asian session, the 14-hour relative strength index—which assesses momentum along with overbought and oversold conditions—did not mirror the upward move.
Analysts interpret the emerging bearish divergence as a potential sign that momentum is beginning to diminish.
