An earlier prediction by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, suggesting the end of the Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle, has been revised due to changes observed in market structure and substantial inflows via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are contributing to the absorption of selling pressure.
In a social media post dated May 9, Ju admitted that the forecast he made in March had been premature, noting that present market conditions suggest the Bitcoin cycle theory may have progressed beyond its traditional historical patterns.
New Market Entrants Reshape Bitcoin Cycle Patterns
A limited group of participants—including early whales, miners, and retail traders—has traditionally influenced Bitcoin’s price cycles. These actors typically engaged in boom-and-bust behavior, with whales often initiating large sell-offs when retail enthusiasm declined, resulting in cascading price drops.
Ju compared this behavior to “a game of Musical Chairs,” where participants try to exit at the same time, ultimately leaving the last movers holding rapidly devaluing assets.
Ju believes the market landscape has shifted with the entry of institutional investors, firms like Strategy, and even government agencies. These new participants typically adopt longer-term investment strategies, motivated by goals such as treasury diversification or adherence to regulated fund mandates.
Ju believes this newly established demand base is helping absorb selling pressure more effectively, thereby reducing the volatility that once defined Bitcoin’s cycle peaks.
“…It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory.”
He said:
Steady Yet Subdued: Bitcoin Market Shows Stability Amid Slow Momentum
Although recent price movements have been bullish, Ju described the current phase as sluggish, noting that most on-chain indicators hover near neutral levels. While the market is not exhibiting the dramatic surges seen during previous peaks, it is also not experiencing a downturn driven by widespread profit-taking.
Ju believes that consistent inflows from ETFs are playing a crucial role in sustaining Bitcoin’s price levels, allowing the market to absorb older supply without triggering the usual panic-driven sell-offs. This indicates a maturing market structure, where capital rotation is occurring in a more gradual and less disruptive manner.
A long-term chart shared by Ju illustrates that Bitcoin’s profit-taking signal has been flattening in contrast to previous market peaks, indicating a more gradual and stable correction rather than a sharp reversal.
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