An earlier prediction by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, suggesting the end of the Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle, has been revised due to changes observed in market structure and substantial inflows via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are contributing to the absorption of selling pressure.
In a social media post dated May 9, Ju admitted that the forecast he made in March had been premature, noting that present market conditions suggest the Bitcoin cycle theory may have progressed beyond its traditional historical patterns.
New Market Entrants Reshape Bitcoin Cycle Patterns
Bitcoin’s price cycles have traditionally been influenced by a limited group of participants, including early whales, miners, and retail traders. These actors typically engaged in boom-and-bust behavior, with whales often initiating large sell-offs when retail enthusiasm declined, resulting in cascading price drops.
This behavior was compared by Ju to “a game of Musical Chairs,” in which participants attempted to exit simultaneously, ultimately leaving those who moved last holding assets that were rapidly losing value.
With the entry of institutional investors, firms like Strategy, and even government agencies into the market, the landscape is now believed by Ju to have shifted. These participants are typically characterized by longer-term investment strategies and are driven by motivations such as treasury diversification or compliance with regulated fund mandates.
It is believed by Ju that this newly established demand base is contributing to the more effective absorption of selling pressure, thereby reducing the volatility that previously characterized Bitcoin’s cycle peaks.
He said:
“…It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory.”
Steady Yet Subdued: Bitcoin Market Shows Stability Amid Slow Momentum
Although recent price movements have been bullish, the current phase was characterized by Ju as sluggish, with most on-chain indicators reported to be hovering near neutral levels. While the market is not exhibiting the dramatic surges seen during previous peaks, it is also not experiencing a downturn driven by widespread profit-taking.
It is believed by Ju that the consistent inflows from ETFs are playing a crucial role in sustaining Bitcoin’s price levels, enabling the absorption of older supply without initiating the typical pattern of panic-driven sell-offs. This indicates a maturing market structure, where capital rotation is occurring in a more gradual and less disruptive manner.
A long-term chart shared by Ju illustrates that Bitcoin’s profit-taking signal has been flattening in contrast to previous market peaks, indicating a more gradual and stable correction rather than a sharp reversal.
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