It was stated by Nate Geraci that “spot XRP ETFs are only a matter of time,” with the prediction being based on historical instances where the existence of a regulated futures market has increased the likelihood of approval.
XRP futures contracts were officially launched on CME Group’s derivatives platform on May 19, with trading volume exceeding $15.6 million by 9:20 P.M. UTC across both standard and micro contract formats.
As reported by CME data, a total of 120 standard XRP contracts were traded at an average price of $2.3965, resulting in a notional volume of roughly $14.3 million. Each contract was structured to represent 50,000 XRP.
In addition, a total of 206 micro contracts—each representing 2,500 XRP—were traded over the course of the day, with a recorded trading volume exceeding $1.2 million.
According to data from Coinglass, the launch of CME’s XRP futures positioned it ahead of platforms such as dYdX in terms of notional daily volume. It was reported to be nearing the daily trading volumes of BitMEX at $19.3 million and HTX at $20.9 million.
The XRP futures contracts are designed to be cash-settled and are benchmarked against the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, which is calculated each day at 4:00 P.M. London time.
A variety of trading strategies, ranging from retail hedging to institutional portfolio management, are supported through the implementation of the dual contract structure.
In an earlier statement, it was noted by Giovanni Vicioso, global head of cryptocurrency products at CME Group, that institutional demand for derivatives products has extended beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
The launch of the product was attributed to rising interest in the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and the expanding adoption of XRP, as cited by him.
The listing of XRP futures by CME was undertaken following the classification of XRP as a commodity by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the context of ongoing regulatory proceedings.
What ETFs Could Mean for the Market
Beyond addressing the rising institutional demand for regulated exposure to XRP, the introduction of CFTC-regulated XRP futures is now viewed as a significant market indicator by advocates of a spot XRP ETF.
In a social media post dated May 19, it was observed by ETF Store President Nate Geraci that the arrival of spot XRP ETFs in the United States is “only a matter of time.”
Based on data shared by Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently being awaited by eight spot ETFs linked to XRP.
The existence of regulated futures markets has historically been viewed by analysts as a critical component in fulfilling the U.S. SEC’s criteria for assessing proposals related to spot crypto ETFs.
As a result, this development is expected to enhance the 65% probability of spot XRP ETF approval that was estimated by analysts in February.
