It was stated by Nate Geraci that “spot XRP ETFs are only a matter of time,” with the prediction being based on historical instances where the existence of a regulated futures market has increased the likelihood of approval.
XRP futures contracts were officially launched on CME Group’s derivatives platform on May 19, with trading volume exceeding $15.6 million by 9:20 P.M. UTC across both standard and micro contract formats.
According to CME data, traders exchanged a total of 120 standard XRP contracts at an average price of $2.3965, generating a notional volume of approximately $14.3 million. Each contract represented 50,000 XRP.
In addition, traders executed a total of 206 micro contracts—each representing 2,500 XRP—throughout the day, generating a trading volume of over $1.2 million.
According to data from Coinglass, the launch of CME’s XRP futures positioned it ahead of platforms such as dYdX in terms of notional daily volume. Reports indicated that its daily trading volume was approaching those of BitMEX at $19.3 million and HTX at $20.9 million.
The XRP futures contracts settle in cash and use the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate as their benchmark, calculated daily at 4:00 P.M. London time.
The implementation of the dual contract structure supports a variety of trading strategies, enabling both retail hedging and institutional portfolio management.
In an earlier statement, Giovanni Vicioso, global head of cryptocurrency products at CME Group, noted that institutional demand for derivatives products has extended beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
He cited rising interest in the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and the growing adoption of XRP as the reasons for launching the product.
CME listed XRP futures after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classified XRP as a commodity during ongoing regulatory proceedings.
What ETFs Could Mean for the Market
Advocates of a spot XRP ETF now view the introduction of CFTC-regulated XRP futures as a significant market indicator that also addresses the rising institutional demand for regulated exposure to XRP.
In a May 19 social media post, ETF Store President Nate Geraci observed that the arrival of spot XRP ETFs in the United States is “only a matter of time.”
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared data indicating that eight spot ETFs linked to XRP are currently awaiting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Analysts have historically viewed the existence of regulated futures markets as a critical factor in meeting the U.S. SEC’s criteria for evaluating spot crypto ETF proposals.
As a result, analysts now expect this development to boost the previously estimated 65% probability of spot XRP ETF approval issued in February.
