The crypto market is currently in a prolonged consolidation phase, with the overall market cap nearing $3 trillion. Analysts are watching closely for a potential Bitcoin (BTC) breakout, which could drive the market higher.
Analysts have noted that markets have remained largely range-bound over the past week, setting the stage for a potentially explosive move higher.
On Thursday, Bitcoin traded close to $95,000, while ether (ETH), BNB Chain’s BNB, and Solana’s SOL showed little movement. XRP and Cardano’s ADA declined by 2%, and dogecoin (DOGE) dropped by 3%.
On Wednesday, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reported a $56 million loss, ending an eight-day streak that had brought in nearly $3 billion of investment into these U.S.-listed products.
Some believe the markets have stayed generally range-bound over the past week, potentially setting the stage for an explosive upward move.
Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst, stated in an email that long consolidations typically build strength for further movement, with the labor market data on Friday likely serving as the next major trigger.
Kuptsikevich added that for the past five days, the market has traded within a very narrow range, showing a slight tendency toward shallower declines. However, it has failed to break above its 200-day moving average, currently around $3.01 trillion. He noted that a global positive catalyst is needed for a breakout, which could open the path to the $3.5 trillion zone and trigger strong movements in altcoins.
Pat Zhang, head of research at WOO X, echoed the sentiment, noting in a Telegram message that BTC continues to experience volatility and has been forming a consolidation range between $93,000 and $95,000 since April 25, building momentum for a potential breakout.
Zhang added that the average funding rate for BTC has been negative over the past week—an unusual trend that indicates significant whale activity both on and off exchanges.
Over the past two years, negative financing rates for bitcoin contracts have been recorded only four times, specifically from Sept. 19 to Sept. 22, 2023, Oct. 20 to Oct. 27, 2023, Aug. 16 to Aug. 24, 2024, and Sept. 10 to Sept. 17, 2024.
Zhang noted that BTC has often shown strong upward trends following periods of negative funding rates, suggesting that whale accumulation may be positioning BTC for a potential move higher.
Traders worldwide are closely watching President Donald Trump’s next moves in the ongoing tariff disputes, which continue to affect macroeconomic sentiment.
According to Bloomberg, Trump acknowledged on Wednesday that his tariff program faced a perception issue and carried significant political risks, but he remained committed to pushing it forward. He stated that “potential deals” with South Korea, India, and Japan were already in progress, and a deal with China was advancing in his favor.
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