Canada’s 45th election was closely contested as the polls narrowed in the days leading up to the campaign’s conclusion.
Pierre Poilievre, the Bitcoin-friendly Conservative Leader, will no longer serve as a Member of Parliament after he lost his seat in an election where Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured enough seats to form at least a minority government.
Data from Elections Canada, reported by the CBC, shows that Liberal Bruce Fanjoy defeated Poilievre for his Ottawa-area seat on Monday night, following a 5-week election cycle that Prime Minister Carney triggered last month.
As of 12:00 a.m. By Eastern Time, the Liberal Party had secured approximately 162 seats, enough to form a minority government.
This number is lower than what recent polls had forecast, which had predicted that a Carney-led Liberal Party would reach majority government territory — 172 seats — due to threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized the country’s sovereignty and directed punitive tariffs northward from the White House.
However, CBC News noted at midnight that officials were still counting votes, and it remains unclear whether the Liberals will win enough seats to form a majority government.
If the current results stand under Canada’s U.K.-inspired Westminster system, the Liberals will need support from another opposition party—such as the separatist-minded Bloc Quebecois or the left-leaning New Democrat Party—to pass bills in the House of Commons.
A non-confidence motion led by the Conservatives, if another party supports it, would be enough to trigger another election — though most observers consider it far too early to take this into account.
Unlike in the United States, where crypto played a significant role in influencing Congressional races and helping to place Trump back in the White House, it appeared to be a subdued affair in Canada.
Although both Carney and Poilievre had discussed crypto in the past, neither raised it as an issue during their campaigns, even though many Conservative Members of Parliament considered it an important topic.
On Polymarket, a contract asking bettors to predict the next Prime Minister of Canada had surpassed $100 million in volume (in U.S. dollars), while a dozen other election-related questions collectively saw nearly an additional $100 million in volume.
