ARK Invest projects that Bitcoin could reach between $500,000 and $2.4 million by the end of 2030, driven by increasing adoption from institutions and nation-states.
ARK Invest, a billion-dollar asset manager, has increased its Bitcoin “bull case” price target from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by 2030, citing growing institutional investment and Bitcoin’s rising status as “digital gold.”
ARK has also revised its “bear” and “base” case scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC), raising them to $500,000 and $1.2 million respectively, according to ARK research analyst David Puell in an April 24 report.
The updated bear and base targets mark an increase from ARK’s earlier Bitcoin price forecasts of $300,000 and $710,000, published on February 11.
ARK based its price forecasts on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), its potential market penetration rate, and its fixed supply schedule.
“Institutional investment plays the biggest role in our bull case,” said Puell, who projected that Bitcoin could reach a 6.5% penetration rate of the $200 trillion financial market in an ideal scenario—excluding gold from that estimate.
Bitcoin’s growing role as “digital gold” also factored heavily into the bullish forecast, with Puell estimating it could capture as much as 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap (as of 2024) by the end of 2030.
Bitcoin’s emergence as a “safe haven” asset in developing markets accounted for 13.5% of ARK’s $2.4 million bull case estimate, making it the third-largest contributing factor.
“This use case for Bitcoin offers the strongest potential for capital growth,” Puell noted, highlighting its role in safeguarding wealth from inflation and currency devaluation in developing nations.
ARK’s Bitcoin price forecasts also took into account treasury strategies by nation-states and corporations, as well as the growth of Bitcoin-based financial services.
If Bitcoin reaches $2.4 million, its market capitalization would climb to $49.2 trillion, based on a projected total supply of 20.5 million coins by the end of 2030.
A $49.2 trillion market cap would come close to surpassing the combined current gross domestic products of the United States and China..
It would also position Bitcoin to surpass gold as the world’s most valuable asset, with gold’s current market capitalization standing at $22.5 trillion.
Even ARK’s bear and base case targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million would require Bitcoin to grow at a compounded annual rate of 32% and 53% through 2030 — a level of return rarely seen in assets that already hold trillion-dollar valuations.
Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded from a 2025 low of $75,160, climbing back to around $94,000, as the Trump administration moved forward with the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
