Bitfinex’s latest report suggests that Bitcoin’s recent market activity, following the escalation between Israel and Iran, reflects a capitulation phase. The exchange noted that such behavior often precedes a potential rebound, indicating that a recovery may be on the horizon.
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a significant decline after the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, which sparked a strong risk-off response from investors. However, a Bitfinex Alpha report released on June 16 suggests that the market could be gearing up for a rebound, as long as geopolitical tensions remain contained.
Bitcoin began last week with solid momentum, posting a 4.7% gain and approaching its all-time peak of $109,590. However, the unexpected Israeli airstrikes on Iran on June 13, followed by retaliatory actions, shifted market sentiment sharply. Traders responded with heightened caution, becoming significantly more risk-averse amid the geopolitical uncertainty.
Investor Jitters Sparked by Geopolitical Tensions, Yet Bitcoin Holds Firm: Bitfinex Alpha
Concerns over a potential escalation of conflict disrupting oil output triggered a surge in oil prices, intensifying macroeconomic uncertainty. In the aftermath of the attacks, Bitcoin declined by 7.3%, while net taker volume plummeted to negative $197 million—a figure that reflected broad market panic.
Bitfinex analysts observed that steep drops in net taker volume typically signify capitulation, a trend historically linked to market bottoms. The crypto fear and greed index also dropped swiftly into the “fear” zone, supporting the view that a local bottom may have formed.
This selling, however, combined with a spike in liquidations, resembles past capitulation—style setups that often mark local bottoms. If Bitcoin can hold the $102,000–$103,000 zone, it may suggest that selling pressure is being absorbed and that the market could be primed for recovery—assuming geopolitical risks don’t intensify further
Bitfinex Alpha report.
Although panic emerged, the broader market correction remained fairly moderate. Bitcoin declined by 9% from peak to trough—significantly less severe than earlier major downturns. Bitfinex highlighted that this trading range has appeared in nearly half of the sessions throughout the current cycle, implying that the recent volatility falls within expected norms.
If the $102,000 support level remains intact and broader economic conditions improve, the existing market structure could potentially initiate a fresh upward momentum.
