Bitcoin (BTC) is rapidly approaching the $100,000 threshold following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who hinted at a significant trade agreement, reportedly involving the United Kingdom.
The upward movement in prices has been aligned with the cryptocurrency’s broader bullish technical configuration and the optimistic risk sentiment prevailing in traditional financial markets. At the time of reporting, Asian stock markets were trading higher, and futures linked to the S&P 500 had risen by 0.6%.
Nevertheless, several factors have been indicated that the breakout above $100,000 may encounter obstacles and may not occur without volatility.
WSJ Tempers Market Optimism
According to the Wall Street Journal, the major trade deal hinted at by Trump on Truth Social may be presented merely as a “framework of an announcement with tariff adjustments.”
In essence, the upcoming announcement may represent a preliminary framework of negotiations, potentially resulting in a finalized trade deal weeks or months later. Consequently, the upward momentum in BTC may be tempered as the initial wave of optimism diminishes.
Resistance Emerges at $99,900 Level
As noted earlier this week, the $99,900 level may be difficult to surpass, as heightened selling pressure could be triggered by investors who purchased coins near this price point earlier in the year, along with profit-taking activities by long-term holders.
Coinbase Premium Indicator Signals Market Sentiment
The Coinbase premium indicator, which evaluates the difference between BTC’s dollar-denominated price on the Coinbase exchange and its tether-denominated price on Binance, is commonly regarded as an indirect measure of demand from U.S.-based investors.
Historically, prolonged BTC bull markets have been marked by a noticeable increase in the Coinbase premium.
Since late April, a bearish divergence from the price has been observed in the seven-day moving average of the Coinbase premium.
RSI Shows Bearish Divergence Signal
Although a new multi-week high was established by BTC during the Asian session, the 14-hour relative strength index—used to assess momentum along with overbought and oversold conditions—was not observed to mirror the upward move.
The emerging bearish divergence has been interpreted as a potential sign that momentum is beginning to diminish.
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