Cautious optimism is being shown by the market regarding the possibility of a deal being reached, while traders are currently pausing their activity.
The trading week was opened with Bitcoin (BTC) remaining steady above $94,000, as market participants awaited updates from Beijing regarding the status of a trade agreement with the U.S.
A 1.5% decline was recorded by the index tracking the performance of major digital assets, with its value falling below 2,700.
In a message shared on Telegram, it was stated by Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, that “XRP and Bitcoin have recovered from the tariff-related shocks experienced in April, but neither has demonstrated a substantial upward move.” He added that, “due to the present U.S. macroeconomic conditions, investors may be exhibiting excessive caution toward risk assets like crypto, even though Bitcoin’s trajectory has started to diverge from its correlation with U.S. equities.”
Major Asian markets, including those in Hong Kong, mainland China, Japan, and Korea, remained closed on Monday, resulting in reduced liquidity and lower trading volumes.
Macroeconomic headlines were largely dominated by the possibility of improved U.S.–China trade relations. Over the weekend, it was announced by China’s Commerce Ministry that a U.S. proposal to restart negotiations was under review, while President Trump suggested that Beijing “wanted to do a deal.”
It was further noted by Ruck that optimism remains regarding a long-term surge in crypto prices, as institutional adoption is expected to expand through the launch of Real World Assets (RWA) and their integration with platforms native to the crypto ecosystem.
Skepticism has been expressed by Polymarket participants, as prediction markets currently assign a 21% probability that a trade agreement will be finalized by June, and a 47% likelihood that the White House will reduce tariffs before the end of May.
Although specifics regarding the potential trade agreement remained unclear, attention was drawn from the markets. The Chinese yuan was strengthened to a six-month peak, reaching approximately ¥7.19, while regional currencies experienced a collective rise.
The most notable movement was recorded by the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD), which was pushed to a two-year high of approximately NT$29.6 per U.S. dollar by the end of last week.
A surge of $1.4 billion (NT$42.9 billion) in foreign equity inflows and heightened confidence in Taiwan’s tech industry—following TSMC’s report of a 60% increase in quarterly profits—were identified as the primary drivers behind the spike. Although intervention was carried out by Taiwan’s central bank to manage volatility, the action was described as market-driven, with officials denying any political influence.
Is Bitcoin Stuck in a Trading Range?
Bitcoin’s continued stagnation is being further intensified by its struggle against substantial resistance while testing crucial technical and on-chain thresholds, as outlined in a recent report released by Glassnode.
According to the report, difficulty is being faced by Bitcoin in surpassing the $93,000–$95,000 range, which corresponds with the short-term holder cost basis and the 111-day moving average—positioning this zone as a key area of contention for determining market momentum.
It is stated in the report that these levels serve as a crucial turning point that must be maintained. A failure to hold above them would result in the price falling back into the consolidation range, causing a significant number of investors to experience notable unrealized losses.
The report further noted that sell-side pressure diminishes above the $100,000 mark, as fewer coins exist within that price range. Should resistance around $95,000 to $98,000 be surpassed by Bitcoin, a relatively unobstructed path toward fresh price discovery and the potential for a new all-time high could be entered.
