Bitcoin’s grip on the $4 trillion cryptocurrency market may be loosening, but whether that will translate into a sustained period of momentum for altcoins is still too early to tell, Adrian Fritz, head of research at Switzerland-based asset manager 21Shares, told on Friday.
Although the price of many altcoins is surging, “there still needs to be a trend reversal” with Bitcoin’s so-called dominance in order for a so-called altcoin season to begin, he argued.
Bitcoin’s dominance stood at around 61% on Friday, at $2.3 trillion, according to CoinGecko. At one point last month, the asset represented as much as 65.5% of the crypto market’s total value across 17,000 cryptocurrencies that the crypto data provider tracked.
The drop comes as Ethereum and XRP have jumped 20% to $3,600 and 23% to $3.46, respectively, over the past week, with the latter hitting a record high. Meanwhile, meme coins including the Solana-based Bonk and Ethereum-based Floki have soared over 45% each.
Nearly 60% of Myriad Markets users predict that Ethereum will reach a record high this year.
In previous market cycles, strength has been shown by altcoins after Bitcoin’s price peaked. The trend suggests traders rotate toward more volatile assets as the bull market progresses, seeking higher returns. However, the crypto market has changed drastically in recent years.
That includes the debut of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., a product that does not allow investors, whether individual or institutional, to reach for another asset on-chain.
“It’s hard to imagine that Bitcoin’s dominance drops to levels that have been seen in previous bull markets,” Fritz said. “Over the last year, the spotlight has definitely been on Bitcoin.”
Macro Factors Could Trigger True Altcoin Season
Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, if they happen later this year, would provide a “major catalyst” for an altcoin season because they would likely inject liquidity into the market, Fritz said. Until something happens from a macro perspective, he stated it will be “a bit of euphoria in the market.”
Akshat Vaidya, CIO of venture capital firm Maelstrom, echoed the sentiment, stating that “early signals of an ‘altcoin season’ are appearing, but it’s not fully underway yet.”
With momentum for crypto legislation on Capitol Hill, some investors are likely racing to price in regulatory tailwinds for the digital assets sector, analysts told earlier this week. Fed futures traders don’t expect the central bank to cut rates until September, per CME FedWatch.
Still, some signs that altcoin season may be close exist, such as crypto data provider CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index. This index looks at the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap over the past 90 days. On Thursday, the index hit 47 before falling to 43 on Friday. A value of 100 indicates that altcoin season is in full swing.
